Why You May Never Pump Gas Again

The Electric Vehicle Revolution Is Here

Wild prediction: In five years, it will no longer seem interesting to drive an electric car.

“EV” will be an option ticked off a list of features like “automatic” instead of “manual.” That’s because electrification will overtake the suburbs. Move over Toyota RAV4, the EVS are coming to a travel hockey team practice parking near you.

My prediction is predicated on a commitment to change that will take considerable investment, cooperation among foes, and a fair amount of serendipity. Convincing people to change takes years, even decades.

When Adoption Reaches the Masses

In 2003, Cameron Diaz rolled up to the Oscar’s red carpet in a Toyota Prius, and launched green economy fever. Who-wore-what at big splashy glamorous Hollywood shows in the early blogging, pre-smart phone days had enormous sway over popular culture and could dominate media coverage for months. These days, sighting of a hybrid car — one that is partially gas and regenerative battery powered — no longer causes a stir. But for people who remember way back, that hasn’t been the case.

Before the 2003 Oscars, Toyota did not invest heavily in Prius marketing. The product placement was dreamed up by a Hollywood-area car dealer, who loaned ten celebrities Priuses to make an entrance, according to later reporting in Automotive News. The Prius had found its way to center stage, and caused a surge of interest in going green. Prius wasn’t a particularly endearing design, but its significance was impactful because it made alternative drive trains visible, and even aspirational to the masses.

Here’s what The New York Times had to say about Prius driving in 2003.

“The hot car in Los Angeles isn't a Porsche. It's a Prius. A lot of celebrities, including Leonardo DiCaprio and Jackson Browne, people who could get any car they like, are buying them. I heard that Arianna Huffington, who is running for governor in the recall election, traded in her S.U.V. for one. Ed Begley Jr., the greenest actor in town, owns a Prius. When I went to pick mine up at Hollywood Toyota, the salesman said to me, ''You'll never guess who I sold a Prius to yesterday. Cameron Diaz.''

At the time, I had been writing about cars for about a year. The Prius won some fans in the traditional auto press, but irked others. In fact some publications were virulent in their scorn of hybrids and the Prius panache. Guess those critics didn’t see the dawn of influencer marketing in the making.

Several years ago EVs took over the sustainability trophy from Toyota. When everyone was talking Uber, it was the swanky Tesla Model S that everyone wanted as the sustainable sleek sedan of choice. But the Model S and its six-figure price tag were always more aspirational than they were suited to the frugal car shopper. Unlike the Prius, the S was still unattainable. GM introduced the Bolt and Nissan the Leaf, but it was the Model 3 that really made a dent in building desire for affordable EVs. Now Tesla’s devoted fans could own a piece of the electric life. But Tesla has always been a lone wolf, and other automakers can’t hope to replicate its direct sales magic. One buyer bragged how he reserved his car using Apple Pay, and was never going back.

Despite recent headlines about the arrival of a plethora of EVS arriving in dealerships, EVs account for two percent of new cars sold every year in the US. In 2020, two-thirds of EVs sold were Tesla. Tesla doesn’t spend heavily on marketing and communications, or have a car dealer network. In 2021, GM, Jaguar, Volvo, Ford, are among the onslaught of automakers committing to going all electric. The electric future is here. Now its time to spread the word.

The New Players

In the past few weeks, I’ve driven three new all-electric vehicles: the Volkswagen ID4, the Mustang Mach- E, and the Chevy Bolt EUV. This triumvirate of new EVs are priced to appeal to the mass market, and to reach beyond the two percent to turn more gasoline owners into EV buyers. It’s the first wave of whats to come in the next two years.

Each of these vehicles is designed in the shape of a small SUV to accommodate families, dog owners, and weekend road trippers. All have a price tag that puts them squarely in the attainable range in the sea of cars you can buy, besting price of the Tesla Model 3. Two of these vehicles are named after existing models, and one is a whole new variant. Each has a slightly different bend on how to make an EV appealing to converts. Already it’s hard for the average licensed driver to keep up.

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The ID4 is Volkswagen’s electric entrant to the US market. It has all the elements that inspire new car desire. It boasts a simple, clean interior design, confident ride and intuitive UX. I zipped around New Jersey neighborhoods in the ID4, and fit in with the SUV sea that takes up the roads. The ID4 is outfitted with nifty features such as wide hue of lighting accents and crisp graphics. The attention to interior detail warms the cabin. The styling compensates for the missing perky hum of an engine and the vibration it creates on the body. The ID4 is priced from $40,000. There’s an additional $8000 federal tax credit, and three years of free charging via Electrify America stations.

The Ford Mustang Mach-E SUV I drove doesn’t conjure up old school Mustang vibes, other than its grabber blue color palette that harkens back to its pony car roots. Instead, the Mach-E takes its design cues from the Apple iPhone. Even the door handles have what resembles a touch pad instead of traditional handle, and the screen is overwhelming. Outside of performance enthusiast circles, most consumers don’t know that Tesla has been breaking performance records for years, and the Mach-E doubles down on EV’s delirious torque performance potential. The rumors about performance are true, Mach-E has plenty of power, an upside to EV engineering.

The Mach-E’s newest crosstown rival, the Chevrolet Bolt EUV, is also new for 2021. The Bolt EUV is built on GM’s outgoing EV platform, found on the original everyman EV, the hatchback Bolt EV. It’s less spirited than the Mach-E, but high on practicality, and big on affordability. It also is outfitted with GM’s self-driving architecture, Cruise, which enables self-driving on well marked 200,000 miles of mapped highways. The Bolt EUV is on brand with what one expects from a reliable Chevy. It’s missing all wheel drive as an option, so it won’t check that box for customers in snow country. (Maybe that’s why Chevy introduced the car at Disney World.) The Bolt EUV adds that extra room that car buyers want for their versatile lives, and it’s priced to sell in the mid $30,000 range. It will soon be followed by a barrage of GM EV products.

These new entrants join the early EV SUV models: Tesla Model X and Model Y, the Polestar 2, Jaguar i-Pace, Audi e-Tron, Hyundai Kona, and Kia Niro. It’s a rapid growing all electric SUV category. Last year, SUVs and trucks made up 80 percent of all car sales, which makes this size the make it or break it to win American market adoption, and why carmakers are using the small SUV to push out their EV programs.

The Challenge

A dizzying 260 plus new car models are pushed out of dealerships every year. The biggest hurdle for EVs is how to become serious contenders amongst the go-to trusted makes and models. When most customers don’t know and can’t tell the difference between nameplates, its a puzzle to stand out and be known for something that’s not quite ready for primetime. What’s also missing is the messaging and connective tissue to make EVs a top choice in car buyer’s minds that will drive them to research available options.

Sure, EVs look like regular cars, but this design issue presents the challenge of making charging at home seem more desirable than hitting the local Shell station. We’ve found there are not enough fast public charging stations yet to make EV ownership ideal for busy people. But for those lucky enough to have an outlet in the garage, the adaption to a 125 volt charger is realistic and manageable.

When plug-in hybrids and range anxiety are added to the product mix, consumers get even more reticent to make the switch. All of these vehicles I drove are capable of 200 miles before needing a recharge, which is plenty for the average daily commute. Le Car early users tell us they are curious about more efficient performance, but the industry jargon is confusing for those that don’t live and breathe auto. Automakers need to make the case that an EV is the best choice for right now, or if not now, then soon.

Automakers make money in one way: Selling cars. There’s no room for total failure. That’s why many early attempts at EVs haven’t been carried forward. While Tesla is winning the EV market, it’s still too early to say if Tesla will be able to become the mass market brand of choice as the old school carmakers overrun the playing field.

“In five years, it will no longer seem interesting to drive an electric car. ”

For consumers, buying an EV is a significant long term decision. The average American buys a new car every decade, and leases a car every three years. Imagine using a smart phone from ten years ago to use daily. Making the switch to a new powertrain requires education to convince consumers to commit to the most expensive object they will own. For most people, persuasion will take time.

But I have never interviewed an EV owner whose gone back to gasoline, and I’ve talked to a lot of them. Let’s say I live in the suburbs and return to commuting and travel sports schelpping sometime in the near future. If this profile fit me, I would invest in one of these SUV EVs sooner than later.

What car brands need to focus is to find their night at the Oscars 2003 moment. Instead of competing against each other for the existing EV customers, the next step is to sync up the message. It’s time for EV makers to make a splashy arrival in a pack. The only trouble is finding tickets to the magic red carpet ride.